WorkshopStandardised Historical National Accounts for Europe 1870-2007. Towards Historical Union Accounts for the EU

Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen

November 23-25, 2006

Abstract

The present workshop aims at establishing a network for unification and standardisation of European historical national accounts. This will be done by a scholarly meeting in Bergen; Norway at the end of November 2006, where we will map the state of the art in European countries and plan for future arrangements. On this occasion we will draw on information from the Nordic project on standardisation of historical national accounts by having a combined workshop with representatives from the Nordic project, financed by themselves.

Organising Team

Ola Honningdal Grytten, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration Magnus Lindmark, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration & University of Umea (Sweden) Jan-Pieter Smits, University of Groningen, Groningen Growth and Development Centre

Summary

The ESF GLOBALEURONET programme on European globalisation focuses on the economic development of several old as well as newer member states of the EU in the period 1870-present. This historical national accounts project aims to give a quantitative overview as to how the various parts of Europe have developed in the long run and to produce a Europe-wide database on economic growth and productivity, covering the highest possible number of European countries. Furthermore, the aim is to organise education and training activities around this research agenda and to stimulate comparative analyses on levels and growth rates of productivity and economic welfare.

The final results of this project will be embedded in the data-hub on long-term economic growth and structural change of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre.

The first part of this project focuses on the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita for the various countries. For some countries the historical national accounts still need to be constructed. By inviting scholars from the new EU countries and bringing them into contact with scholars with a track-record in historical national accounting, we will significantly aid the construction of historical GDP estimates for these countries. Moreover, attention will be paid to the standardisation of historical national accounts. Scholars in the Nordic countries and the Netherlands have already started doing this, but especially in the field of deflation techniques as well as the measurement of services, also in other countries estimation techniques need to be standardised in order to be able to make sound comparisons of levels as well as growth rates of output.

A proper economic history of the EU cannot be written as long as we do not have the disposal of a standardised set of historical national accounts of the several member states. Only with such a comprehensive dataset can processes of globalisation and deglobalisation be properly understood. The second part of the project attempts to combine the accounts for the individual countries to one consistent set of EU accounts.

Such a dataset will enable us to analyse structural changes within Europe by means of a shift-share analysis. A long-term dataset on economic growth and structural change will show us to what extent the formation of the EU changed the dynamics of the European economy, or if some of the present characteristics of the present EU have deep historical roots that predate the institutionalisation of econo mic ties between European countries.

Besides, a dataset on comparable historical accounts will make it possible to make longrun comparisons between the characteristics of the US and EU which will enable us to study many of the topics raised in the wake of the ‘Lisbon agenda’ from a historical perspective.

The main focus on this meeting will be to find out from local experts what type of data are available in the new member states which can be used to make preliminary GDP estimates. Besides, it should be decided for which benchmark years deflators should be constructed and on which level of aggregation the data must be presented. Finally, some decision should be taken with respect to the standardisation of estimates. Accordingly, the workshop is the first step towards standardisation of individual historical national accounts for the individual EU countries, which in turn is necessary for finally arriving at historical national accounts for the EU.

On the basis of this research agenda the country experts will write papers which will be discussed at a seminar that will be organised at the University of Groningen in the autumn of 2007, possibly with other projects within Area 3 (e.g. Long term energy and growth). At this seminar decisions will be made as to how to arrive at a definite dataset on long-run economic growth which will be hosted by the Groningen Growth and Development Centre. These data will be made available for the general public. Besides, this project is linked to the Summer School 2007 which will be organised on the topic of ‘Explaining patterns of convergence and divergence in European economies since 1870: A sector-perspective on comparative economic performance of European nations’.